Thursday, October 29, 2009

TaxProf Blog: Red States Feed at Federal Trough, Blue States Supply the Feed

TaxProf Blog: Red States Feed at Federal Trough, Blue States Supply the Feed

Assessing the Opt-Out - A Lessson from the Abortion Debate

Assessing the Opt-Out - A Lessson from the Abortion Debate

U.S. economy returns to growth, but recovery has a long way to go -- latimes.com

U.S. economy returns to growth, but recovery has a long way to go -- latimes.com

Op-Ed Columnist - More Schools, Not Troops - NYTimes.com

Op-Ed Columnist - More Schools, Not Troops - NYTimes.com

Glenn Greenwald: Lieberman and Bayh Enriching Themselves and Their Spouses with Opposition to Health Reform | Video Cafe

Glenn Greenwald: Lieberman and Bayh Enriching Themselves and Their Spouses with Opposition to Health Reform | Video Cafe

Is Politico becoming too dumb for Drudge? | Media Matters for America

Is Politico becoming too dumb for Drudge? | Media Matters for America

Monday, October 26, 2009

WTF

Crooks and Liars

Guess Who's Going To Administer Any Public Option? Insurance Companies.

Via Raw Story, some news that really isn't such a big deal. Third-party administrators are already a cash cow for the insurance industry, but my guess is that this contract will have a lot of built-in cost controls:

A little-noticed tidbit in Saturday's Washington Post is sure to raise eyebrows among liberal supporters of a gorvernment-run healthcare plan: the plan is likely to be administered by a private insurance company, the very companies that progressive activists are trying to unseat.

The public-option debate is frustrating some Democrats, who have come to believe that a government-run plan is neither as radical as its conservative critics have portrayed, nor as important as its liberal supporters contend. Any public plan is likely to have a relatively narrow scope, as it would be offered only to people who don't have access to coverage through an employer.

The public option would effectively be just another insurance plan offered on the open market. It would likely be administered by a private insurance provider, charging premiums and copayments like any other policy. In an early estimate of the House bill, the Congressional Budget Office forecast that fewer than 12 million people would buy insurance through the government plan.

The problem with insurance companies isn't the third-party administrators - they simply administer claims decisions on the basis of what the client pays for. (Although their administration fees are so often heavily padded, and the feds will have to watch them closely.) This is commonly done with so-called "self-insured" plans.

This is one of the reasons why it won't happen overnight. Someone's going to have to come up with the oversight structure.

Obama Undercuts Dems On Health Care

Monday October 26, 2009 11:15 a.m
Lead Photo

President Barack Obama arrives in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, Monday, Oct. 5, 2009, to make remarks on health care reform. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

As health insurance reform legislation inches closer to final passage, Democrats in Congress are struggling to make health care affordable to millions of Americans. But the White House has constantly undercut their efforts by making backroom deals with industry insiders and sabotaging some of their most effective cost-saving tools.

All of the bills currently up for debate in Congress provide some level of financial assistance for those in the lower income brackets who can not afford to purchase health insurance. Members of Congress have been attempting to keep these subsidies as high as possible to drive down costs for consumers. Failure to do so could cost them dearly at the polls in the upcoming 2010 Congressional elections.

But the White House, in an effort to score a political win and pass a health care bill quickly, has consistently made compromises that complicate the mandate before Congressional Democrats, who must provide affordable care to their constituents. Over the summer, the president made a now-infamous deal with the drug companies that would effectively thwart any attempt made by Congress to insert a provision allowing the federal government to use its purchasing power to negotiate better drug prices for seniors on Medicare. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, was relying on savings from such a provision to pay for higher subsidies.

Another controversial but cost-saving provision that Democrats in the House were planning to employ was the government funded public insurance option. The Congressional Budget Office, the group responsible for measuring the cost of proposed health care plans, has said that a public option that pays doctors based on Medicare rates could save $110 billion over 10 years. However, President Obama has been pushing for a weaker version of the public plan called a “trigger” that would only come into effect if private, for-profit insurers failed to control costs. While this approach is more politically feasible in the eyes of the White House, it increases the cost of the bill and therefore reduces the amount of money that can be spent on subsidies, further increasing costs to consumers.

Because the Obama Administration arbitrarily decided on a health care bill cost ceiling of $900 billion over 10 years, any cost-saving measure not included in the final bill indirectly results in higher costs for consumers in the form of lower subsidies.

For example, the bill approved by the Senate Finance Committee does not include any form of the public option and does not allow the government to directly negotiate drug prices. Therefore, it provides the lowest subsidies of any bill. Politico provides a great breakdown of the real-world numbers.

A family of three making $46,000 a year — about 250 percent of the poverty line — would have to pay $4,349, or 9.5 percent of their income, under the Finance Committee bill to purchase insurance. That’s a fifth more than the House bill, yet the policy purchased would require the beneficiary to cover 30 percent of average coverage costs — twice the 15 percent requirement in the House bill.

The center estimates that the premium costs could absorb 55 percent of the family’s disposable income after paying fixed costs like rent, utilities, car payments, groceries and gasoline. The risk is that many will drop out or lawmakers will weaken the mandate that everyone get insurance.

This kind of plan could spell disaster for members of Congress up for re-election in 2010. What’s more, it would effectively prove one of the Republican Party’s most damaging talking points — that health care reform under the Democrats would amount to a huge tax increase on the middle class.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Every Dollar That Goes Out To These People That Is Not Taxed At The Highest Bracket Is A Theft From The American Worker.

What would half of these totals for one fiscal year buy in infrastructure, education, small business loans, health care reform or paying down the deficit?


Wall Street On Track To Award Record Pay

OCTOBER 14, 2009

Major U.S. banks and securities firms are on pace to pay their employees about $140 billion this year -- a record high that shows compensation is rebounding despite regulatory scrutiny of Wall Street's pay culture.

Workers at 23 top investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers and stock and commodities exchanges can expect to earn even more than they did the peak year of 2007, according to an analysis of securities filings for the first half of 2009 and revenue estimates through year-end by The Wall Street Journal.

Total compensation and benefits at the publicly traded firms analyzed by the Journal are on track to increase 20% from last year's $117 billion -- and to top 2007's $130 billion payout. This year, employees at the companies will earn an estimated $143,400 on average, up almost $2,000 from 2007 levels.

News Hub: Good Times Roll Again on Wall Street

1:24

Some Wall Street employees are expected to see a big payout this year -- bigger than in 2007. Firms will pay employees about $140 billion.

The growth in compensation reflects Wall Street firms' rapid return to precrisis(sic) revenue levels. Even as the economy is sluggish and unemployment approaches 10%, these firms have been boosted by a stronger stock market, thawing credit market, a resurgence in deal making and the continuing effects of various government aid programs.

The rebound also reflects growing confidence by some Wall Street firms that they can again pay top dollar for top talent, especially once they have repaid the taxpayer-funded capital infusions they received at the height of the crisis. So far, regulators and lawmakers have focused on making sure pay practices discourage excessive risk-taking, leaving to companies the question of how much is too much.

The Journal's analysis includes banking giants J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc.; securities firms such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley; asset managers BlackRock Inc. and Franklin Resources Inc.; online brokerage firms Charles Schwab Corp. and Ameritrade Holding Corp.; and exchange operators CME Group Inc. and NYSE Euronext Inc.

These firms' total revenues are projected to hit $437 billion, surpassing 2007's $345 billion, according to the analysis. The rise in total revenue and compensation is in part a function of Bank of America's acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. and J.P. Morgan's acquisitions of Bear Stearns Cos. and the banking operations of Washington Mutual Inc.

[Rebound]

To reach its 2009 projections, the Journal examined publicly disclosed quarterly compensation figures for each firm so far this year. These include salary, health benefits, retirement plans and stock awards, and also typically include money these firms put away throughout the year to fund later bonus payouts.

The Journal calculated each company's compensation as a percentage of revenue. It then projected how much the company would pay at that rate over the full year, using analysts' quarterly and full-year revenue estimates provided by Thomson Reuters. The methodology was reviewed by compensation experts.

Investment banks such as Goldman and Morgan Stanley typically pay employees about 50% of revenue. The rate is lower at commercial banks, whose tellers and other retail-banking employees earn less than traders.

Some companies contacted about the analysis didn't dispute the methodology, though others said it was too early to speculate. Some say they set aside more money for compensation at the beginning of the year, in order to avoid shortfalls, and then ratchet back later.

Goldman disputed the Journal's projection that the bank was on track to pay a record-high $21.85 billion. Spokesman Lucas van Praag said Goldman paid an average of 46.7% of net revenue from 2000 to 2008, lower than the 49% rate used by the Journal.

Based on Goldman's historical average, it would be on pace to report full-year compensation and benefits of about $20 billion. In 2007, Goldman paid out $20.19 billion, its securities filings show.

wall street bull sculpture and pay
Bloomberg News

The rebound in pay reflects growing confidence by Wall Street firms that they can again pay top dollar for top talent, especially once they have repaid the taxpayer-funded capital infusions they received at the height of the financial crisis. Above, the Wall Street bull sculpture sits on display between Broadway and Exchange Place.

Another wild card is whether financial firms will bend to public and political pressure to rein in pay. "Compensation played a role in the financial crisis, and yet nothing has changed," says J. Robert Brown, a professor at University of Denver's law school and an expert on corporate governance.

The Obama administration's pay czar, Kenneth Feinberg, is expected to issue as soon as this week his findings on compensation packages at seven firms receiving federal aid, including Bank of America and Citigroup.

Among firms facing scrutiny from Mr. Feinberg, Citigroup is on pace to pay about $22 billion, down 32% from last year. Bank of America is on track to pay about $30 billion, up 64%, the Journal analysis shows. But much of that increase reflects Bank of America's purchases of Merrill Lynch and Countrywide Financial Corp. Both banks are on pace to pay less as a percentage of net revenue than they did in 2008.

Michael Karp, cofounder of recruiting firm Options Group, says he doesn't think "2007 is back," adding Wall Street executives have leeway to pay less and don't want placards in front of their offices decrying big pay packages.

Indeed, some companies in the analysis are scaling back on compensation, reflecting recent moves to cut jobs, shed businesses or hunker down until they are more confident in the market rebound's staying power. Mutual-fund giant T. Rowe Price Group Inc. has shrunk its work force by about 10% since the end of 2008 and reduced its annual bonus pool in the quarter ended June 30. Its overall compensation bill is on pace to decline by about 16%.

Many financial firms, however, say they need competitive pay packages, pointing to threats from non-U.S. companies, private-equity firms and hedge funds. Mr. van Praag, the Goldman spokesman, said the firm understands public sentiment over bankers' pay, but added: "The easiest way to destroy the firm would be if we didn't pay our people....Destroying a profitable enterprise would not be in anybody's interest."

Goldman also says employees have long had a stake in its long-term results because many are compensated in part with shares they can't touch for several years. Average compensation per employee is on pace to reach about $743,000 this year, double last year's $364,000 and up 12% from about $622,000 in 2007, according to the Journal analysis.

At some firms where revenue is rebounding at a relatively slow rate, more incoming cash is going toward pay. In the first half of 2009, Morgan Stanley paid out or set aside about 70 cents of every $1 in net revenue for compensation and benefits, up from its historic rate of about 50%.

At the recent rate, Morgan Stanley is on pace to pay about $16 billion for 2009, up 33% from last year, despite a projected 6% decline in revenue. Many analysts expect Morgan's ratio to come down in the year's second half.

The New York firm says its revenue has been hurt by a rise in the prices of its bonds, which makes it more expensive for the firm to buy them back. The company added that compensation levels will likely be pushed higher by a brokerage joint venture it introduced this year with Citigroup.

Write to Aaron Lucchetti at aaron.lucchetti@wsj.com and Stephen Grocer at stephen.grocer@wsj.com


Thursday, October 22, 2009

Microsoft Windows 7 Operating System Debut Launches An Upgrade Debate : NPR

Microsoft Windows 7 Operating System Debut Launches An Upgrade Debate : NPR

...Upgrade Scenarios

Before deciding whether to upgrade, Consumer Reports says to check out Microsoft's Windows 7 Upgrade Advisor to make sure that your computer, printer and other peripherals, as well as your software, are compatible with the new system....

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: An International Update on the Comparative Performance of American Health Care - The Commonwealth Fund

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: An International Update on the Comparative Performance of American Health Care - The Commonwealth Fund

Going Out of Business? A new ad goes too far when it says Medicare will be "bankrupt" in eight years.

http://factcheck.org/2009/10/going-out-of-business/

Friday, October 16, 2009

Rightwing Voters: Obama's Success = Destruction of USA

A new focus group study from the Democratic-friendly polling firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research shows that right-wing Republicans have jumped the political rails to inhabit a world of their own. The dominant "fact" for this band of conservatives is that President Barack Obama has a secret plan to impose socialism on the United States and repress the citizenry. Consequently, they believe that Obama's success is tantamount to the destruction of the country.

From the study:

The self-identifying conservative Republicans who make up the base of the Republican Party stand a world apart from the rest of America, according to focus groups conducted by DemocracyCorps. These base Republican voters dislike Barack Obama to be sure – which is not very surprising as base Democrats had few positive things to say about George Bush – but these voters identify themselves as part of a 'mocked' minority with a set of shared beliefs and knowledge, and commitment to oppose Obama that sets them apart from the majority in the country. They believe Obama is ruthlessly advancing a ‘secret agenda’ to bankrupt the United States and dramatically expand government control to an extent nothing short of socialism. While these voters are disdainful of a Republican Party they view to have failed in its mission, they overwhelmingly view a successful Obama presidency as the destruction of this country’s founding principles and are committed to seeing the president fail.

In a conference call, pollster Stan Greenberg and consultant/celebrity James Carville pointed out that this study—which was based on interviews with conservative Republicans in suburban Atlanta—did not identify race as a factor in shaping the attitudes of these right wingers. But the focus group participants believe that Obama is representing dark and unseen forces.

Karl Agne, a consultant who worked on the study, noted during the call that the participants became rather conspiratorial when discussing the president. Asked where Obama was born, these folks, according to Agne, took a deeply skeptical position: "You'll never know." They insisted that Obama's true past has been hidden and that the sort of information provided by previous presidents about their backgrounds has in the case of Obama been denied to the American public. They also believe that Obama is a front-man. As Agne describes it, they've concluded that "there is no way a community organizer could have risen to this point without powerful interests driving this....He couldn't have possibly done this on his own."

These conservatives repeatedly asserted that Obama has a grand plan to wreck the United States by both ruining the economy and destroying civil liberties. The report notes:

Conservative Republicans do not oppose Obama’s policies simply because they think they are misguided or out of partisan fervor. Rather, they believe his policies are purposely designed to fail. When they look at the totality of his agenda, they see a deliberate effort to drive our country so deep into debt, to make the majority of Americans so dependent on the government, and to strip away so many basic constitutional rights that we are too weak to fight back and have to accept whatever solution he proposes.

But the focus group participants, who expressed angry disappointment with the Republican Party and its leaders for not mounting a more fierce opposition, did note that something of an "underground movement" is building to resist Obama's plot. And they identified Fox News, Glenn Beck, and the so-called Tea Parties as manifestations of this nascent uprising.

So is this a problem for Obama? Probably not. The White House can dismiss this group as a right-wing fringe. The real dilemma is for the Republican Party. How can it speak to (or appease) these voters without appearing extreme and without alienating reasonable Republicans and independents? After all, GOP chairman Michael Steele, Republican congressional leaders, and the party's 2012 presidential contenders will have a tough time remaining in the real world while courting conservatives who reside somewhere else. But if GOP leaders don't join the underground movement hailed by these conservatives, won't that indicate that they, too, are part of the Obama conspiracy?

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