Pew: McCain In Downward Spiral

by DemFromCT

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 09:50:05 AM PDT

The Pew poll is one of the most respected in the business, and a real narrative setter. Today's has very bad news for Palin McCain-Palin

McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral
Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama.

Check out enthusiasm.

This important stat means evereything in terms of who will show. People want to be part of a history-making election, and the first Serious Election in some time (one dominated by issues instead of the usual Republican character assassination. Republicans and conservatives are peeved about that, as if life is unfair because of it. The rest of America and the world is rejoicing.)

Here's another important observation:

The survey finds that the proportion of Americans who disapprove of Bush’s job performance has hit a new high in a Pew survey (70%); just 22% now approve of the way Bush is handling his job. Since January, when Bush’s job rating was already quite low, at 31%, his approval mark has declined by nine points.

As disapproval of President Bush’s job performance has edged upward, fewer voters say that McCain would take the country in a different direction from Bush’s. Currently, more voters say McCain would continue Bush’s policies than say he would take the country in a different direction (47% vs. 40%). Just a week ago (Oct. 16-19), voters were divided over whether McCain would continue Bush’s policies or not (44% continue, 45% take new direction).

Albatross!! Actually the NBC/WSJ poll says Palin is a bigger albatross.

Note also the undecideds (and don't predict how they'll vote, because they are not really paying attention):

On most issues, the positions held by undecided voters fall between those of Obama and McCain supporters, although they are somewhat more similar to McCain supporters on the issue of illegal immigration. Overall, these voters are more likely than supporters of either candidate to say they don’t have an opinion about most issues.

Undecided voters do clearly distinguish themselves from supporters of both McCain and Obama in their lower levels of participation and interest in this election, and partisan politics in general. A majority (51%) of undecideds do not identify with either the Republican or Democratic parties and fewer than half (48%) report having voted in the primaries this year; by contrast, 63% of both Obama and McCain supporters say they voted in a primary.

Not much good news for McCain here. The trackers are closer to 6-7 than Pew, but then again, Pew has better LV modeling than some of the trackers. But as for the final tally, well, we'll just have to wait on that one.

In any case, Gallup adds insult to injury:

Poll: 7 in 10 Americans Say Obama Will Win
Even McCain supporters slightly more likely to say Obama, rather than McCain, will win

Ouch.