Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Daily Kos: State of the Nation

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News from the Votemaster

Democrats Beginning to Seriously Consider Using Reconciliation on Health Bill Permalink

After months of trying to get a bipartisan deal with the Republicans on health care reform, there is increasing momentum now on using the budget reconciliation process to ram a bill through the Senate using a parliamentary maneuver that cannot be filibustered. Once the House and Senate have passed (different) bills, a conference committee will come up with a single bill or possibly two bills. It is likely that aspects all Democrats agree on will be in a single bill that will follow the normal rules and on which cloture will be invoked. The controversial parts will likely go in a second bill that will be subject to a straight up-or-down vote, with 50 votes (plus Joe Biden) being enough to pass it. In this way, even if some conservative Democrats, such as Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) vote against it, it will still pass.

While Republicans will be enraged by this tactic, the Democrats are now circulating an unsigned memo explaining how reconciliation works and pointing that it has been used 19 times since the process was established in 1980, most recently six times during the Bush administration. In particular it was used in 2001 and 2003 to pass large tax cuts for the wealthy over Democratic objections. Some of the things Republican senators said then may come back to haunt them now. For example, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) said: "Is something wrong with 'majority rules'? I don't think so."

An alternative way to get things done is the way Lyndon Johnson got his health care bill (Medicare) through. He knew exactly how to cajole and pressure every member of Congress. He'd get Billy Graham to call Baptists, Cardinal Cushing to call Catholics, Martin Luther King to call blacks, etc. He'd have a list of everyone's campaign contributors and get them to pressure lawmakers. He'd tell reporters why it was important for their own families. And on the dark side, he knew where all the skeletons were buried and wasn't afraid to remind members that he knew. In short, he could play Congress like a violin, something Obama doesn't know how to do or isn't willing to try. Here is an interesting summary of the LBJ treatment.

An Individual Mandate May Sneak in under the Radar Permalink

While there has been a lot of talk about the "public option" everyone seems to forget it is just an option. Nobody is forced to choose it. In fact, in most of the bills, only a tiny fraction of the population will even be allowed to choose it (basically people not eligible for employer-sponsored coverage). What is far more important, both for individuals and politically is the individual mandate--a requirement that everyone in the U.S. have an approved health insurance policy. This requirement, which most Democrats agree on, will badly split the Republican party. On one hand, are the libertarians, who object to the government telling them how to spend their hard-earned money. On the other hand, big business, led by the insurance companies, is salivating at the thought of 40 or 50 million new paying customers. The insurance companies are so enthusiastic about this idea that they are willing to drop their objections to offering policies to people with preexisting conditions. Multiply 40 million by several thousand dollars per person per year and you may begin to see why.

The uninsured tend to fall into two categories: people who want insurance but can't afford it and young, healthy people who have made a calculated bet that they won't get seriously ill. The former group is likely to get government subsidies and will be pleased if suddenly they have insurance. To the extent that they vote, they are likely to express their gratitude by voting for the Democrats. The latter group is likely to be at least somewhat annoyed by being forced to buy insurance and may express their grievances by voting against the Democrats. The size of the two groups is thus important, but really isn't known. But this issue could be far more important to voters than the presence or absence of some abstract public option for which most of them aren't eligible anyway.

Court Reject's Paterson's Appointment of Lt. Governor Permalink

When David Paterson succeeded to the governorship of New York after Eliot Spitzer's resignation following a sex scandal, the lieutenant governorship became vacant. New York law does not provide for any way to fill this post. Normally, that wouldn't matter since the lieutenant governorship is worth less than the vice presidency--and John Nance Garner famously compared that job unfavorably to a container of tepid fluid. However, the one real duty the lieutenant governor has is breaking ties in the state Senate and when that body temporarily had a 31-31 split between fractious Democrats and fractious Republicans, Paterson thought he could solve the problem by appointing Richard Ravitch, a long-time Democratic Mr. Fixit, to the vacancy. A New York state appeals court has now thrown out the appointment, noting that the state constitution does not give the governor the power to fill a vacancy in the state's number 2 position. At the moment the issue is moot since the party switching in Albany has (temporarily) stopped and the Democrats have a 32-30 edge in the state Senate, but for the longer run, the state constitution probably should be amended. If the lieutenant governor's position is worth having in the first place, there should be a way to refill it if it becomes empty. For the time being, this ruling just makes Paterson look inept and will probably lower his approval rating more. The lower it goes, the more likely New York Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, will challenge Paterson in a primary. All the polls say Cuomo would crush Paterson and go on to be elected governor, no matter who the Republicans nominate.

Former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani is keenly aware of Paterson's vulnerability and is considering a run against him. However, if Cuomo is his opponent instead of Paterson, he may decide to stick to making millions as a security consultant. Cuomo, meanwhile, is playing his cards close to his vest and is saying he has no current plans to run for governor. But with statewide name recognition, he could hold off making an announcement until next year.

Hutchison Starts Campaign for Governor of Texas Permalink

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) has officially started her campaign for governor of Texas by blasting the incumbent, Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), pointing out that Texas has the highest property taxes in the country and the most children without health insurance. Most politicians regard being a senator as a "higher" position than being a governor, but when you are in the minority in the Senate and from a large state, being governor may seem more attractive. It is already clear that Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment: "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican" is currently disabled. The Hutchison-Perry primary is going to be a high profile, big fireworks event.

Republicans May Have a Candidate Against Reid Permalink

As we have often said here, be careful what you wish for. You might get it. One thing the Republicans have dearly wished for is a Senate candidate in Nevada who could take on the majority leader, Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), who is not very popular in his home state. Now a Las Vegas lawyer and real estate developer, Danny Tarkanian (R), is about to announce his candidacy. Tarkanian ran for the state Senate in 2004 and lost and also for Secretary of State in 2006 and lost. The main thing he has going for him is a famous name. His father, Jerry Tarkanian, was formerly the basketball coach for the University of Nevada at Las Vegas and is very well known throughout the state. A Mason-Dixon poll just released shows Tarkanian beating Reid 49% to 38%.

The downside for the Republicans is that they might just knock off Reid--as they did to then minority leader Tom Daschle in 2004. The problem with that is that Reid's defeat would create a vacuum at the top of the Democratic senatorial caucus and both of the likely contenders, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), currently #2, and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), currently #3, would be far more partisan and aggressive than Reid, who is surprisingly mild mannered given that he was formerly an amateur boxer. If the Democrats manage to hang onto 60 seats despite losing Nevada (for example, by winning Missouri, New Hampshire, or Ohio) then a 60-seat caucus headed by the pitbull Schumer would be no fun at all for the Republicans. And even Durbin would be more of a pain than the conciliatory Reid.

-- The Votemaster

Cook Political Print Header

Latest Ratings Changes

Below are the 25 most recent race ratings updates from The Cook Political Report.

Copyright © 2008 Cook Political Report. All Rights Reserved.
Source URL (retrieved on 08/25/2009 - 16:35): http://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings_updates

Washington Post-ABC News Poll

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Aug. 13-17, 2009, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

*= less than 0.5 percent


...901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?

--Non-Partisans-
                                                           Lean  Lean   No
         Democrat  Republican  Independent  Other  No op.  Dem.  Rep.  Lean
8/17/09       35         25           34        6      1      15    14    11
7/18/09       33         22           41        4      *      20    16     9
6/21/09       35         22           37        7      *      17    16    10
4/24/09       35         21           38        5      *      18    16    10
3/29/09       36         25           33        5      1      15    16     8
2/22/09       36         24           34        5      1      18    13     9
1/16/09       35         23           36        5      1      20    12    11
12/14/08      37         24           35        4      1      16    13    10
11/3/08       35         26           30        6      2      13    10    15
10/11/08      36         26           31        4      2      15    12    10
9/29/08       34         26           31        8      2      17    12    12
9/22/08       36         26           31        5      2      18     9    11
9/7/08        35         26           33        5      2      15    14    11
8/22/08       36         23           34        6      1      16    14    10
7/13/08       37         24           33        6      1      16    14    10
6/15/08       38         24           34        4      1      16    14     8
5/11/08       34         28           34        4      1      19    11     8
4/13/08       35         29           30        5      1      15    13     8
3/2/08        40         28           28        3      1      15     8     9
2/1/08        37         26           32        4      1      16    11    10
1/12/08       39         27           29        5      1      13     9    12

908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?

  Don't think in      No
          Liberal    Moderate    Conservative    those terms (vol.)    op.
8/17/09        20         40            37                  2             1
7/18/09        20         39            38                  2             1
6/21/09        22         40            36                  1             *
4/24/09        23         39            35                  2             2
3/29/09        20         38            38                  2             2
2/22/09        23         38            37                  1             1
1/16/09        24         42            32                  *             1
12/14/08       22         37            37                  1             2
10/11/08 RV    22         44            34                  *             1
9/29/08 RV     19         44            34                  1             1
9/22/08 RV     23         41            32                  2             1
9/7/08  RV     22         39            36                  1             2
8/22/08        22         41            33                  2             2
7/13/08        19         43            35                  2             1
6/15/08        21         43            33                  1             2
5/11/08        24         39            34                  2             1
4/13/08        24         38            35                  1             2
3/2/08         19         48            30                  2             2
2/1/08         25         38            34                  2             1
1/12/08        24         36            36                  2             1
12/9/07        24         38            36                  1             1
11/1/07        24         41            32                  1             1
9/30/07        24         45            30                  1             1
9/7/07         20         39            39                  1             2
7/21/07        25         39            32                  3             1
6/1/07         24         36            37                  2             1
4/15/07        24         42            32                  1             1
2/25/07        23         40            35                  1             1
1/19/07        23         41            33                  1             1
12/11/06       23         42            33                  2             1
11/4/06        19         42            36                  2             1
10/22/06       22         42            32                  2             2
10/8/06        21         43            33                  1             1
9/7/06         24         39            33                  2             2
8/6/06         18         42            38                  1             1
6/25/06        21         41            35                  1             1
5/15/06        19         48            31                  1             1
5/11/06        18         49            33                  *             *
4/9/06         21         41            35                  2             1
3/5/06         22         42            33                  2             1
1/26/06        21         40            37                  1             1
1/8/06         20         40            37                  2             1
12/18/05       22         42            34                  1             1
11/2/05        23         44            32                  1             *
9/11/05        22         44            31                  2             2
8/28/05        20         44            34                  2             1
6/26/05        21         44            33                  1             1
6/5/05         23         40            35                  1             *
4/24/05        20         47            30                  1             1...

August 19, 2009

More See White House and GOP Leaders at Odds

Democratic Favorable Ratings Slide

Overview

Americans are in an increasingly sour mood about Washington. Barack Obama’s approval ratings continue to inch downward and a growing proportion of Americans (63%) think that the president and Republican leaders are not working together to deal with important issues facing the nation; in June, 50% said the two sides were not cooperating. While more people continue to blame Republican leaders than blame Obama, the percentage saying the president is at fault (17%) is higher now than in June (12%) and much higher than in February (7%)

In the same vein, the new poll finds favorable ratings of the Democratic Party have declined sharply since spring. Just 49% now say they have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. This compares with a 59% favorable rating for the party as recently as April and 62% shortly before Obama took office in January. Opinion of the Republican Party, which stands at 40%, has not changed all year.

Public opinion about the national economy also is stuck, and on balance remains negative. Fully 90% rate economic conditions negatively – 52% say they are poor and 38% only fair. These evaluations are on par with views of the economy in June, which had shown some improvement from earlier in the year. Similarly, the proportion of Americans expecting the economy to improve over the next year, which increased from March to June, has now stabilized.

However, the public’s personal financial assessments have become more bearish in the new poll than they were two months ago; currently, 55% say they expect their financial situation to improve over the next year, down from 63% in June. Since June, the decline in personal financial optimism has been particularly pronounced among middle-income and affluent Americans, as well as among Republicans and independents.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Aug. 11-17 in English and Spanish among 2,010 adults reached on landlines and cell phones, finds that 51% now approve of Obama’s job performance while 37% disapprove. While that is largely unchanged from July (54%), it is down 10 points from June (61%).

Independents, who approved of Obama’s job performance by nearly two-to-one in June (56% to 29%) are now about evenly divided: 45% approve while 43% disapprove.

The survey finds that with public views of the economy remaining predominantly negative, there are no signs that Americans are ready to increase personal spending. Fully 81% report they have cut back on vacation spending, been eating at restaurants less often, or have delayed purchasing a car or major home items. This is largely unchanged from June (76%) or, for that matter, from February (79%), when overall views of the economy were even more negative.

As in the past, more people say they are cutting back on spending because they worry their financial situation might get worse rather than because it actually has gotten worse. Nearly half (47%) of those who have delayed or cut back spending say they have done so out of fear about the future, while 34% say they are cutting back because their finances have gotten worse.

The job situation continues to worry more Americans than other financial problems. More than four-in-ten (44%) say the job situation is the economic issue that most worries them, followed by rising prices (26%), problems in the financial markets (14%) and declining real estate values (9%). This hierarchy of worries is little changed from previous surveys this year.

Health Care: More Attentiveness Among Conservatives

As the debate over health care continues, an overwhelming proportion of Americans (90%) say they have heard at least a little about bills being proposed by President Obama and Congress to overhaul the health care system. Nearly half of the public (48%) says they have heard a lot about the proposed legislation. Notably, 61% of conservative Republicans say they are hearing a lot about health care legislation, substantially more than in other political groups.

The poll indicates that anger about the legislative proposals under consideration is not especially widespread. Just 18% say they would be angry if health care legislation proposed by the president and Congress were to pass; only half as many (9%) say they would be angry if the bills do not pass.

Overall, reactions to possible outcomes of the legislative debate are mixed: 44% say they would be very happy or pleased if the bills proposed by Obama and Congress pass, while 40% say they would be disappointed or angry. When a separate group of respondents was asked about their reaction if the bills fail, about as many say they would be very happy or pleased (39%) as disappointed or angry (40%).

More Republicans have strong reactions to the bills’ prospects than do Democrats. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) say they would be angry if the current reform proposals were enacted. By comparison, just 13% of Democrats say they would be angry if the legislation proposed by Obama and Congress does not become law. Rather, most Democrats (51%) say would be disappointed.

Similarly, while 38% of Republicans say would be very happy if the bills fail, a smaller percentage of Democrats (27%) say they would be very happy if the bills succeed.

Independents generally do not express as intense reactions to possible outcomes of the health care debate than do Republicans or Democrats. However, while 19% of independents say they would be angry if the health care bills pass, just 8% say they would be angry if the bills do not pass.

Democratic Party’s Falling Favorability

The decline in the Democratic Party’s favorable ratings has come across party lines, but the change is especially large among independents. Only 40% of independents give a favorable rating to the Democratic Party, down 12 points since April.

Independents’ views of the Republican Party have not changed since April (41% favorable then, 40% today). As a result, as many independents now express positive views of the GOP as of the Democratic Party.

Democrats continue to express positive views of their own party, but favorable ratings have slipped from 91% in April to 85% now. Somewhat fewer Republicans also rate the Democratic Party favorably (17%) than did so in April (24%). More than three-fourths of Republicans (78%) rate the GOP favorably, which is virtually unchanged from April.

The Democratic Party’s favorability has decreased among most demographic groups. The decline has been largest among those with some college education (62% in April to 45% now). Similarly, 68% of people with family incomes less than $30,000 expressed a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party in April compared with 54% now. A similar decline is evident among those 30 to 49 (61% to 47%).



Views of the Economy and Personal Finances

Although the Obama administration and some economists have touted the early signs of an economic recovery, the public is, if anything, more gloomy about the economy than it was two months ago. Ratings of the national economic situation remain dismal, with 52% saying the economy is in poor shape, and 38% saying its condition is “only fair.” People’s assessments of their own financial situation are less negative, but the number describing their finances as “poor” ticked up from 22% in June to 26% today.

The most notable change in economic views is the decline in the number of people who expect their financial situation to improve over the next year. The June survey found a nine-point increase in optimism since February (from 54% to 63%). In the current survey, the proportion expecting their financial situation to improve has fallen back to 55%. Much of the change since June has occurred among middle- and upper-income people. There was no rise in the percentage who think their situation will worsen; instead, the number expecting things to stay the same has grown.

Views about the prospects for a national economic recovery are highly partisan, as they have been since President Obama took office. Nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans (60% vs. 31%) say they expect the nation’s economy to improve over the next year. Independents are somewhat closer to Republicans on this question; just 39% see improvement in the next year.

While a large majority of Americans (80%) say they have delayed or cut back spending in at least one of several areas, their reasons for doing do have not changed. As has been the case in the past, those who report cutting their spending say they are doing so more as a precaution than because they have been forced to do so by their financial situation. About one-third of those reporting cutbacks (34%) say their personal finances have worsened and led them to make the changes; 47% say they are cutting back because their finances might get worse in the future.

For detailed demographic tables, see page 8 of the Complete Report PDF.

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