Hurricane nears U.S. after brushing Bermuda -
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Inventors hope to tame the hurricane tempest
Roanoke Valley researchers are incredulous that the patent office has thrown cold water on their strategy for weakening hurricanes.
Associated Press
Surfers take advantage of the growing waves generated by Hurricane Bill along Folly Beach, S.C., on Thursday. The National Weather Service is warning people to stay out of the water along South Carolina's north coast because of high surf and rip currents.
Associated Press
Hurricane Bill weakened slightly Friday but still threatened the eastern U.S. coast. Both a Roanoke firm and a team working with Microsoft founder Bill Gates have ideas on how to diminish such gales.
Related
Kevin Myatt's Weather Journal blog
Roanoke inventor Ron Blum and The Egg Factory beat a group that includes Bill Gates to the patent office by more than seven years.
Both groups have proposed an ambitious strategy to weaken hurricanes by lowering the temperature of surface ocean waters across a wide swath in the storms' paths.
The strategy submitted by Microsoft's founder and his cohorts made international news last month when its patent applications, filed Jan. 3, 2008, were published July 9.
"I learned of the applications like everyone else did -- in the paper and then it was mentioned on the 'Today' show," Blum said.
The Egg Factory, an innovation-focused company based in Roanoke County, had filed its provisional patent application on Nov. 28, 2000.
Today, Blum acknowledges some satisfaction that The Egg Factory got there before the Gates group. But being first hasn't kept the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office from throwing cold water over The Egg Factory's idea -- a response that clearly aggravates Blum, both as an entrepreneur and as an American.
"The United States already is not on the same trajectory that it used to be in terms of innovation," he said.
The two strategies differ in key ways but are also remarkably similar. No evidence suggests the Gates group knew about The Egg Factory's patent application, which is unpublished to date. Others, including Atmocean, have filed similar patent applications in recent years.
Forty years after Hurricane Camille's remnants killed 153 people in Virginia, four years after Hurricane Katrina killed more than 1,800 on the Gulf Coast, and with Hurricane Bill currently boiling in the Atlantic Ocean, Blum believes The Egg Factory's plan to sap the strength of hurricanes can save lives and property.
How it might work
Warm ocean waters and warm, moist air fuel hurricanes. In theory, an immense volume of cooler water "upwelled" from deeper waters by a fleet of unmanned submarines (or barges, in the Gates case) might turn a giant into a lesser threat.
Samson had Delilah. Might altered surface water temperatures enfeeble hurricanes?
That's how The Egg Factory sees it.
And that's the view also of the group of inventors, scientists and investors that includes Gates as its most famous member.
Under The Egg Factory's plan, the submersibles would be filled with liquid carbon dioxide, explained George Hagerman, a research faculty member at Virginia Tech who has been involved with the Blum effort from the start. As the satellite-guided submersibles are signaled to rise beneath the hurricane's eyewall, the liquid carbon dioxide naturally boils off because of a reduction in pressure, he said -- creating a bubble plume, akin to an air stone in a fish tank -- that carries surrounding cold water to the ocean surface.
The Gates group's plan equips barges with pipes. Wave-driven energy would thrust warmer waters down, creating a "downwelling" effect that would displace cooler waters upward.
Some experts have said that the theory and science is sound but that real-world application would be a daunting and stupendously expensive undertaking with potentially troubling unintended consequences -- such as deflecting hurricanes to someone else's shores and affecting rainfall important to agriculture.
Hurricane expert Stephen Leatherman directs the Laboratory for Coastal Research at Florida International University. He described enthusiasm Friday for the general concept of cool water upwelling as a hurricane mitigation strategy. The physics and science are right, he said.
"I think this is the best idea I've heard of," he said, among numerous notions through the years ranging from reasonable to absurd. "Hurricanes are like steam engines and they get their energy from that top level of warm water."
Key issues would be what volume of cold water would be necessary and how to decide "when you would go after the hurricane," he said.
In an e-mail Thursday, hurricane expert William Gray weighed in. Considered a pioneer in the science of forecasting hurricanes, Gray is a professor of atmospheric science and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University.
"The idea of upwelling of cold water along the U.S. coast to weaken hurricanes has been around a long time," Gray wrote. "Colder surface water would likely weaken the inner-core maximum winds of the hurricane and the inner-core storm surge, but do little in changing the strength of the outer winds and the overall high water of the hurricane."
He cited several logistical challenges.
Coastal ocean water currents would likely shift the upwelled water to other locations in comparatively short order, he said. Upwelling enough cold water in a period of a few days in advance of a hurricane "would likely not be feasible," Gray said. And, he said, to upwell cold water for a whole hurricane season along the U.S. coast "would likely involve too many people and be too expensive."
That said, Gray added, "But I think some small-scale feasibility trial experiment would be worthwhile."
The patent office apparently thinks differently.
In October 2003, it rejected The Egg Factory's application. The rejection included this sentence: "[A] patent system must be related to the world of commerce rather than to the realm of philosophy."
Blum said he read that line with incredulity and remains mystified by it.
Lawyer William Wells, an intellectual property expert, has worked with Blum for years. He shares Blum's bafflement at the patent office's conclusion.
"In my experience -- and I've been doing this a long time -- they [The Egg Factory] have provided enough evidence to suggest that this is patentable," Wells said.
The Egg Factory plans to "put the case back in front of the patent examiner," Blum said.
But who would pay for such an audacious strategy? According to Blum, the list could include insurance and oil companies, coastal states, businesses and residents, and the federal government.
Many experts warn that a warming climate will produce especially destructive hurricanes, a reality that could build a powerful political force, too.
Gates could not be reached for comment. Susie Rantz, an employee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, said the foundation has no connection to the hurricane effort. She said Gates is an investor in the project.
If Blum's patent application is approved and the plan becomes feasible, how will The Egg Factory's investors make money?
By selling or licensing the technology to a Fortune 500 company.
And what if Gates' clout moves patent officials to grant his group's application and The Egg Factory's keeps blowing in the wind?
"That would be a travesty to Ron," Wells said.
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt contributed to this report.
Weather Watch: Bill Gates sets his sights on hurricane control
4:00AM Wednesday August 5, 2009
Plenty of things in our lives seem pointless... some might say it's the on-ramp traffic lights in Auckland.... others might say TV One's weather cams that run at 6:20pm during winter showing us the current weather conditions in each main centre even though it's pitch black and we can't see a thing....and others...well they might think investing money in controlling hurricanes is a pretty pointless...but it's just what Microsoft founder Bill Gates has in the pipelines. I struggled to find a press release about it and it seems it's all being done very secretly - but US website USATODAY.COM recently published a story on this incredible idea.
"Five U.S. Patent and Trade Office patent applications, made public on July 9, propose slowing hurricanes by pumping cold, deep-ocean water in their paths from barges. If issued, the patents offer 18 years of legal rights to the idea for Gates and co-inventors, including climate scientist Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution of Washington" says the website. "The patents describe a system for strategically placing turbine-equipped barges in the path of storms to chill sea surfaces with cold water pumped from the depths".
"Given the scope of the applications, "I suspect these will have a lengthy stay in the examiner's office. They are talking about some interesting issues here," says patent expert Gene Quinn of IPWatchdog.com"
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Caldeira declined to comment on the patents - which is why I struggled to find any press release.
The idea behind humans trying to control the weather isn't new. During the 2008 Olympics China actually guaranteed dry weather for the opening ceremony. At the time of the Olympics they were spending 50 million US dollars a year as part of their "weather modification project".
The project covers drought affected areas but also covered Beijing. The Chinese Government sent rockets into the sky to make the clouds rain... the idea being that if any rain clouds formed they would bombard them until the rain 'dried up' and dry clouds passed over Beijing.
America has also dabbled in "cloud seeding". In drought affected areas the government is seeding clouds to create rain. In airports prone to fog they are experimenting with ways to reduce the amount of fog and in states affected by large hail storms trials are being performed to reduce the size of hail.
See my blog last year about Cloud Seeding.
The US Government also tried cloud seeding with hurricanes but feared that they could actually make a hurricane worse...and that's hardly going to win you an election if you tried to stop Hurricane Katrina and instead made it worse...and lets face it, with Bush in charge at the time the 'worse case scenario' was probably the 'most likely' one.
But what Bill Gates is proposing isn't to touch the sky - instead, he wants to remove the fuel that creates hurricanes - the warm ocean below.
USATODAY reports that by cutting the sea surface temperature by 4.5 degrees under the eye of a hurricane it would actually kill the storm.
Says climate scientist Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University in State College: "Needless to say, there is a whole lot of scepticism about this among tropical meteorologists. But it's not so ridiculous that I would actually dismiss it out of hand. There is certainly an important role of upper ocean mixing on tropical cyclone behaviour."
This year it appears El Nino is forming and this creates warmer waters around the equator near South America. Now the possible El Nino will probably be too late arriving to affect the outcome of this years Atlantic Hurricane season but predictions are for a season with an average number of tropical storms. So far it's been very quiet however August is the 'true' beginning of the season. Gates has got all the money to fund this and after the complete devastation of Hurricane Katrina many Americans will be keen to look at anything that could minimise the impact of a hurricane. Of course, it would be on such a grand scale to weaken a hurricane that the cost of 'easing' a storm may be greater than the cost of the damage. Mind you, you can't easily put a dollar number on a human life...you just have to work out whether that money is best spent on easing the severity of a hurricane, or perhaps better forecasting equipment and better evacuation plans.
You can read the full article from USATODAY here.
Finally - back to New Zealand for a bit - have you noticed the jump in temperatures lately? While it might not be overly warm it's certainly mild compared to the past few months. We're keen to hear whether you think spring has arrived early this year where you live - cast your vote in our Poll.
And to have your say on Bill Gates' idea - post a comment below. I'm sure it'll stir up a few emotions in some.
Top: Software icon Bill Gates could be lining up the weather as his next conquest. Photo / AP
by Rosalind Peterson | |
Global Research, May 11, 2006 | |
EXPERIMENTAL WEATHER MODIFICATION BILL FAST TRACKING FOR PASSAGE IN U.S. SENATE & HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
U.S. Senate Bill 517 and U.S. House Bill 2995, a bill that would allow experimental weather modification by artificial methods and implement a national weather modification policy, does not include agriculture or public oversight, is on the “fast track” to be passed in 2006.
This bill is designed to implement experimental weather modification. The appointed Board of Directors established by this bill does not include any agricultural, water, EPA, or public representatives, and has no provisions for Congressional, State, County, or public oversight of their actions or expenditures.
Weather Modification may adversely impact agricultural crops and water supplies. If the weather is changed in one state, region or county it may have severe consequences in another region, state or county. And who is going to decide the type of weather modification experimentation and who it will benefit or adversely impact?
This experimental weather modification bill will impact residents across the United States not just in California. Many current and ongoing weather modification programs (80 listed by NOAA in 2005), including the one in Wyoming that is designed to increase the snowpack, may be diverting rainwater away from Oklahoma and Texas, two states that are currently fighting fires caused by a lack of rainfall. We have no idea what the unintended consequences of the Wyoming action or other experimental weather modification programs might be now or in the future.
In addition to the experimental weather modification programs listed by NOAA, there are both private and ongoing government sponsored atmospheric testing and heating programs underway in Alaska and across the United States. Alaska Senator Stevens recently received $50 million in funding for Alaska’s atmospheric heating program.
All of these unregulated, private, government, and public weather modification programs, may also have unintended synergistic effects. Senate Bill 517 does not address these issues but intends to implement more experimental weather modification programs without a national debate or public oversight.
Artificial weather modification can impact all of us by reducing water supplies, changing agricultural crop production cycles, reducing crop production, and water availability. Since most experimental weather modification programs use chemicals released into the atmosphere the public could be subjected increasingly toxic or unknown substances that could adversely impact agricultural crops and trees.
Trimethyl Aluminum (TMA) and barium are just two of the toxic chemicals used in recent atmospheric heating and testing programs according to NASA. The Alaska H.A.A.R.P. atmospheric heating program may have the capability of changing the Jet Stream which could also change our weather.
Many private weather modification companies admit that precipitation effects may be positive or negative. Fog dispersal programs, using dry ice, liquid nitrogen, liquid propane or silver iodide may improve visibility while adversely impacting Redwood Trees along the California coast by depriving them of needed water they derive from the fog.
The increasing use of varied chemicals like aluminum (coupled with increasing air pollution), can severely impact tree health by depriving trees of water and nutrients normally absorbed through their root systems.
The December 2005 Popular Science Magazine discussed a plan to use an oil slick to stop hurricanes without noting the adverse environmental impacts of the oil used to cover the ocean.
Popular Science also noted that a private company, Dyn-O-Mat, plans to purchase jets to drop thousands of pounds of a water absorbing chemical powder (unknown substance), into hurricanes to absorb moisture that may dissipate hurricanes. There is no agriculture oversight or public hearings to determine the consequences of this and other actions or to monitor or prevent adverse impacts of this chemical once it falls on the surface of the ocean or on land.
Alaska and other areas across the United States are beginning to feel the impacts of climate change. Enormous changes are being seen in the declining health of native plant and tree communities in many areas across the United States.
NASA noted in an October 2005 newsletter that increasingly persistent contrails are “…trapping warmth in the atmosphere and exacerbating global warming…” NASA goes on to note that: “…Any increase in global cloud cover will contribute to long-term changes in Earth’s climate. Likewise, any change in Earth’s climate may have effects on natural resources…”
Global dimming and the persistent contrails, that produce man-made clouds, may have serious impacts on crop production. A recent corn crop study in Illinois shows that cloud cover reduces corn crop production while direct sunlight increases production. In addition, increasing man-made clouds may reduce the effectiveness of solar panels.
Gil Smolin, an Avian Bird Flu expert, noted on the Ron Owens Show on KGO Radio (January 5, 2006), that the flu was spread more quickly in the winter when there was a “lack of sunlight”. Would man-made clouds be contributing to the lack of sunlight which might cause the Avian Bird flu to spread more quickly at other times of the year? Experimental weather modification programs could also exacerbate this problem by changing climate patterns, increasing man-made cloud cover, and changing our weather and climate patterns.
Senate Bill 517 does not address any of these important issues. Its sole purpose is to establish an experimental weather modification policy without any agriculture or public oversight of private, military, and government programs. Without oversight or public hearings agriculture, our natural resources, and watersheds may be negatively impacted. And who will be responsible to determine the synergistic effects of these programs or pay for unintended disasters created by this experimentation. If these programs change growing seasons and interrupt the pollination process crop losses could be substantial exacerbating economic losses.
Please contact all of your elected local, state and federal officials to stop this bill in its present form. This bill needs to have appropriate agriculture and public oversight, with public hearings included, prior to any more experimental projects. We need a national dialogue on this subject before more experimentation takes place.
For more information please contact:
Rosalind Peterson
Post Office Box 499
Redwood Valley, California 95470
(707) 485-7520
E-Mail: info@californiaskywatch.com
In 1995, she became a certified U.S.D.A. Farm Service Agency Crop Loss Adjustor working in more than ten counties throughout California. Many crop losses throughout the State can be attributed to weather related causes.
Rosalind has a BA degree from Sonoma State University in Environmental Studies & Planning (ENSP), with emphasis on agriculture and crop production.
Rosalind Peterson was born and raised on a working farm in Redwood Valley, California. The weather was the foremost factor in determining whether or not our tree crops produced fruit and nuts.
Between 1989 and 1993 Rosalind worked as an Agricultural Technologist for the Mendocino County Department of Agriculture. After leaving Mendocino County she took a position with the USDA Farm Service Agency as a Program Assistant in Mendocino, Sonoma, and the Salinas County Offices.
The first successful protest rally against U.S. Senate Bill 517 was held in Los Angeles, California on March 23, 2006.
The second successful educational forum and demonstration rally opposing U.S. Senate Bill 517 was held in Phoenix, Arizona on Saturday, April 29, 2006. The Agriculture Defense Coalition is now moving their message east across the United States toward Washington, D.C.
Concerned grassroots citizens are involved in this educational protest movement to protect agriculture from unwise experimental weather modification programs. “We, the people, simply will not accept this reckless experimenting on our weather and are fighting the passage of this bill in order to protect agricultural crop production and our water supplies.”
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